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Half an hour before every match , the 2 team captains meet on the pitch and exchange team selection sheets.
The home captain then has the right to toss the coin with each side assigned either heads or tails. The away captain typically chooses which side of the coin they need . Then the captain who wins the toss decides whether their team will bat or bowl.
Is it possible to predict the result of the cricket toss? There are only two options, therefore the likelihood is that 50%, but the upcoming data shows interesting results.
As serious bettors, we aren't so curious about the toss itself, but rather what IPL captains do if they win the toss.
Namely, will the team captain prefer to bat or bowl, and the way can we use that information to assist our match prediction.
The best cricket odds models should incorporate toss prediction models. The results of the toss conveys crucial information for professional cricket bettors. It can allow us to vary our betting strategy for the match counting on the result of the toss.
If you'll determine data concerning how team captains typically act if they win the toss, this will offer you a betting advantage.
The best captains will adapt their strategy counting on various match factors, so let's examine the method by watching components in choosing whether to bat or bowl:
Exchanging Team Selection Sheets
This is the primary time captains have seen their opponent's line-ups and the way the team consists should have an enormous decision on whether to bat or bowl.
Cricket strategy usually dictates if the rivals have selected a robust bowling team, then a far better decision could also be to bat first and hope the pitch deteriorates.
If the pitch feels wet, then it's going to be advantageous to bowl first and use the conditions to your advantage.
But perhaps some teams overwhelmingly make an equivalent decision on whether to bat or bowl, no matter what conditions are. we'll determine .
This is a random occurrence with each captain having an equal 50% chance of selecting correctly.
But again, popular theory is that the winning captain must push home their advantage and choose the 'right' course of action. But is there a 'right' course of action, or is winning the toss itself enough of an advantage?
With the info we've collected, you'll see how some captains have a way better record winning the toss than their rivals.
Here we probe the info from the 2019 IPL fixtures and appearance reception the coin toss win percentage varies massively from captain to captain. Remember, the probability, should on the average be 50%, for every captain.
Toss Winner Percentage
Rohit Sharma (Mumbai Indians)
MS Dhoni (Chennai Super Kings)
Shreyas Iyer (Delhi Capitals)
David Varner (Sunrises Hyderabad)
K L Rahul (Kings XI Punjab)
Steve Smith (Rajasthan Royals)
Dinesh Karthik (Kolkata Knight Riders)
Virat Kohli (Royal Challengers Bangalore)
As you'll see, some teams have a big edge at the coin toss than others. Rohit Sharma wins on the average four out of each five tosses, while superstar Virat Kohli wins but one in five!
Now for the disclaimers. Of course, this data has drawbacks. albeit it's over a full IPL season, it's still statistically speaking alittle sample size with 17 match tosses the foremost a captain can participate in - some teams will only play 14 games.
Ideally, we might want a minimum of 10 years of knowledge to account for anomalies and blips, but it's interesting all an equivalent .
Secondly, winning the toss doesn't guarantee the captain's team will continue and win the match.
But now we'll take the info one step further and check out and determine whether the standard strategy within the IPL has been to bat or bowl first.
Most cricket fans agree that teams generally like better to bat first, seeing it as a plus , but do the stats copy that assumption? Or is it a myth?
From the 2019 season, teams who won the toss only chose to bat first in 22.5% of the games - but one in four. That figure is way less than most folks would reasonably expect.
Here are how some big teams make their decisions:
Chose to bowl percentage
Kolkata Knight Riders
Kings XI Punjab
Royal Challengers Bangalore
Chennai Super Kings
Our data shows us that the bulk of teams prefer to bowl first - we've just published data for the six teams with the very best percentage in choosing to bowl first.
Why is this? we will guess that within the quickfire T20 format, there's a comfort in batting second therein you recognize the precise number of runs you would like to win. Batting first are often viewed as a negative because the team's total becomes a target to seek out .
But whether there's much of a plus in IPL teams batting first or second is debatable. Certainly, previous analysis shows there's little statistical evidence that it makes a difference either way whether a team bats first or second.
A separate international T20 study, showed a small advantage for the team batting second during a outdoor game , but during a day-night game (where the team varsity bats with some natural light) the team that bats first wins 60% of the time. during a outdoor game , there's no real difference.
However, what we will assume is that winning the toss and going to choose gives a psychological advantage. And in elite sport, any advantage, regardless of how small, is worth something.
Well, if the bookies found out a market on 'who will bat first?', we could reasonably assume the costs to be on the brink of this: Team A 10/11 (1.90) and Team B 10/11 (1.90).
The real odds would be 1/1 (2.00) for every team, but bookmakers will always have their margin.
So, if you ever got the prospect to back a match with Chennai Super Kings involved, the smart bet would be to back their rivals within the 'who will bat first?' market.
Not only do Super Kings elect to bowl 75% of the time, their captain MS Dhoni wins 75% of his tosses. Therefore we will claim positive arithmetic mean - Dhoni is extremely likely to win the toss and to elect to bowl first, meaning the worth on their rival's to bat first should be much shorter than the hypothetical 10/11 (1.90).
We can take this further. Now we've a rough idea of how leading captains fare not only within the toss but also in their choice of what action to require , let's create a way of applying it to match predictions.
Cricket traders are on record (Sports Spread Betting: An Insider's Guide By Daniel Townend) as saying top-class matches are becoming harder and harder to cost up until they know who has won the toss.
Bookmakers see it as a big pointer in setting the chances to understand which team will bat or bowl first, and by extension they see the team winning the toss as gaining a benefit.
Previous studies on the influence of winning the toss showed alittle improvement within the winning chances of a team, although it had been supported Test cricket and ODI matches.
So, if we will second guess which team will win the toss, then we'll have a plus over the bookmakers in securing a far better price than we should always have gotten .
Let us use Mumbai Indians as an example. we all know Rohit Sharma won 80% of his tosses during the 2019 season.
If we subscribe the view that cricket traders are shortening the worth of the team that wins the toss immediately after the news is formed public, then we will reasonably expect Mumbai Indians to be underpriced much of the time.
If Sharma wins 80% of tosses, are the bookies forced to shorten the worth on Mumbai Indians 80% of the time? Maybe not, as this was an emerging trend, so perhaps the figure isn't so high. But there's certainly an argument that there's a betting edge here.
And we can apply it to other teams too. Virat Kohli may be a great cricketer, but his toss win rate is amazingly low. Again, there could also be opportunities where Royal Challengers Bangalore are a 'bad price'.
Not only do the team start favourites more often than their overall record probably entitles them to, but their opponents got the advantage of creating the choice over 80% of the time within the 2019 season.
Another edge we will take is by understanding once we think the optimal time to bat or bowl is. we will do that by considering the likely team line-ups, the weather , the pitch size, and therefore the wicket condition. Previous head-to-head records and other match and team stats also can help paint an image .
IPL matches often start late in the dark and a advantage of batting second is that the ball collects more dew the later the sport goes on at some venues. The moisture leads to a poorer grip for the bowlers and thus more bad deliveries that a batsman can hit.
Consequently, if we calculate that batting second could also be the simplest option, then matches involving any of those four teams are going to be of serious interest: Sunrises Hyderabad, Kolkata Knight Riders, Kings XI Punjab and Royal Challengers Bangalore. all sides chose to bowl first in 80% of their 2019 matches.
Betting on cricket, or more accurately, winning money depending on cricket, is all about finding a foothold , regardless of how tiny.
If we will make reasonable predictions using data, we will gain alittle advantage over bookmakers who might not have this data, and thus we will produce superior match predictions.
We know two key things. Firstly, winning the toss is vital , and teams that win the toss do seem to possess alittle advantage no matter what decision their captain makes.
Secondly, bookmakers accept as true with this and have stated they adjust prices counting on which team wins the toss.
Naturally, if we will predict which team will win the toss, we could also be ready to get a far better price on the side than the chances which will be available immediately after the toss.
And for whatever reason, some captains have a unprecedented record of winning the toss. we should always take care in using this data to form broad assertions or firm predictions, but it's still noteworthy to think about it.
What is extremely interesting and useful is that the captains of IPL teams that prefer to bowl first up to 80% of the time. If we' confident in assessing pre-game whether there's a plus in batting first or second, we will second guess the captains - particularly those with a robust record in always bowling first - and check out and secure a foothold betting.
It will be interesting to ascertain how the toss data stands up during the delayed and under threat 2020 IPL season.
We would advise bettors to form a note of who won the toss and what the captain chose to try to to throughout the season as a part of their cricket betting research.
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